David Dempsey

David Dempsey

Professor at the University of Canterbury. I build physics-based and machine-learning models of the subsurface: geothermal and magmatic systems, induced seismicity, volcanic eruption forecasting, CO2 and hydrogen storage, and groundwater.

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

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Papers 63

2027

  1. Surrogate-Based probabilistic assessment of hydrogen leakage through abandoned wells in depleted gas reservoirs for underground hydrogen storage
    Chang Q, Dempsey D, Xu G et al. · Fuel
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2026.140374

2026

  1. A Physics‐Based, Lumped‐Parameter Model for Attributing Natural and Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions From Producing Geothermal Systems
    Dempsey D · Water Resources Research
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2026wr044239
  2. Socio-economic value of data-driven eruption forecasts to balance false alarms against catastrophic loss
    Ardid A, Dempsey D, McDonald G et al. · Nature Communications
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1038/s41467-026-77242-4
  3. A Machine‐Learning Classification for Torlesse Composite Terrane Petrofacies and its Application to Sediment Provenance
    Parker MO, Dempsey DE, Sagar MW et al. · New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1002/jgo2.70064
  4. From forecast skill to economic value: sub-hourly wildfire potential forecasting across Australian regions
    Ardid A, Power A, Valencia A et al. · International Journal of Wildland Fire
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1071/wf25221
  5. Impacts of reservoir permeability anisotropy on hydrogen migration and recovery efficiency in geological storage
    Liu J, Dempsey D, Nicol A et al. · Fuel
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2025.137596
  6. Effects of reservoir interlayers on hydrogen migration and distribution in underground hydrogen storage
    Liu J, Dempsey D, Nicol A et al. · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2026.153704
  7. Determination of interfacial tension for H2-H2S-water and CH4-H2S-water mixtures under different geological conditions for underground hydrogen storage
    Chang Q, Dempsey D, Huang L · Journal of Energy Storage
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.est.2025.119683

2025

  1. Preferential seawater intrusion in a heterogeneous alluvial aquifer that extends offshore: Insights from numerical modeling
    Cleary CA, Sarris TS, Morgan LK et al. · Journal of Hydrology
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133455
  2. Advanced Hydrogeochemical Coupling in Carbon Sequestration: A 4D Spatiotemporal Fourier Neural Operator–Driven Modeling Framework
    Rui Z, Zhou K, Hu T et al. · SPE Journal
    doi:10.2118/228397-pa
  3. The Research and Impact of the Works by Don Nield
    Becker S, Dempsey D, Zhao D · Transport in Porous Media
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1007/s11242-025-02199-9
  4. Quantifying Interannual Variations in Groundwater Fluxes Within a Braidplain Aquifer Using Active‐Distributed Temperature Sensing
    Sai Louie AJ, Morgan LK, Dempsey D et al. · Water Resources Research
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2024wr039328
  5. Impact of operational parameters on water invasion in underground hydrogen storage: A numerical investigation of the Ahuroa field, New Zealand
    Liu J, Dempsey D, Nicol A et al. · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2025.150236
  6. Forecasting Eruptions at Steamboat Geyser: Time Scales, Differentiability, and Detectability of Seismic Precursors Through Data‐Driven Methods
    Ardid A, Barth A, Dempsey D et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2024jh000569
  7. Ergodic seismic precursors and transfer learning for short term eruption forecasting at data scarce volcanoes
    Ardid A, Dempsey D, Caudron C et al. · Nature Communications
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1038/s41467-025-56689-x
  8. Sub-hourly forecasting of fire potential using machine learning on time series of surface weather variables
    Ardid A, Valencia A, Power A et al. · International Journal of Wildland Fire
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1071/wf24113
  9. Techno-economic analysis of geothermal combined with direct and biomass-based carbon dioxide removal for high-temperature hydrothermal systems
    Titus KA, Dempsey D, Peer RAM et al. · Geothermics
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.geothermics.2024.103159

2024

  1. Influence of hydrogen sulfide on gas-water interface in underground hydrogen storage: A molecular dynamics study
    Chang Q, Huang L, McKenzie K et al. · Journal of Energy Storage
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.est.2024.112766
  2. Earthquakes Trigger Rapid Flash Boiling Front at Optimal Geologic Conditions
    Sanchez‐Alfaro P, Wallis I, Iturrieta P et al. · Geophysical Research Letters
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2023gl108109
  3. From carbon neutral to carbon negative: a theoretical bioenergy and CO2 removal retrofit at Ngāwhā geothermal power station
    Titus K, Dempsey D, Peer R et al. · Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1080/03036758.2024.2385807
  4. Multitimescale Template Matching: Discovering Eruption Precursors across Diverse Volcanic Settings
    Ardid A, Dempsey D, Corry J et al. · Seismological Research Letters
    Open PDF doi:10.1785/0220240012
  5. Prospectivity analysis for underground hydrogen storage, Taranaki basin, Aotearoa New Zealand: A multi-criteria decision-making approach
    Higgs KE, Strogen DP, Nicol A et al. · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.05.098
  6. Eruption Forecasting Model for Copahue Volcano (Southern Andes) Using Seismic Data and Machine Learning: A Joint Interpretation with Geodetic Data (GNSS and InSAR)
    Cabrera L, Ardid A, Melchor I et al. · Seismological Research Letters
    Open PDF doi:10.1785/0220240022
  7. Testing the reproducibility of active-distributed temperature sensing for measuring groundwater specific discharge beneath a braided river
    Sai Louie AJ, Morgan LK, Banks EW et al. · Journal of Hydrology
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130877
  8. Molecular dynamics insights into gas-water interfacial tension: Optimizing hydrogen storage in subsurface conditions
    Chang Q, Dempsey D, Zhang L et al. · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.03.341

2023

  1. Active-distributed temperature sensing dataset beneath a braided river
    Sai Louie AJ, Morgan LK, Banks EW et al. · Data in Brief
    doi:10.1016/j.dib.2023.109756
  2. Shallow groundwater characterisation and hydrograph classification in the coastal city of Ōtautahi/Christchurch, New Zealand
    Bosserelle AL, Morgan LK, Dempsey DE et al. · Hydrogeology Journal
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1007/s10040-023-02745-z
  3. Using Template Matching to Detect Hidden Fluid Release Episodes Beneath Crater Lakes in Ruapehu, Copahue, and Kawah Ijen Volcanoes
    Ardid A, Dempsey D, Caudron C et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2023jb026729
  4. Association Between Injection and Microseismicity in Geothermal Fields With Multiple Wells: Data‐Driven Modeling of Rotokawa, New Zealand, and Húsmúli, Iceland
    Yu P, Dempsey D, Rinaldi AP et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2022jb025952
  5. Identification of Seismo‐Volcanic Regimes at Whakaari/White Island (New Zealand) Via Systematic Tuning of an Unsupervised Classifier
    Steinke B, Jolly AD, Carniel R et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2022jb026221
  6. Physics-Based Forecasting of Induced Seismicity at Groningen Gas Field, The Netherlands: Post Hoc Evaluation and Forecast Update
    Dempsey DE, Suckale J · Seismological Research Letters
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1785/0220220317
  7. Carbon negative geothermal: Theoretical efficiency and sequestration potential of geothermal-BECCS energy cycles
    Titus KA, Dempsey DE, Peer RAM · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2022.103813

2022

  1. Active distributed temperature sensing to assess surface water–groundwater interaction and river loss in braided river systems
    Banks EW, Morgan LK, Sai Louie AJ et al. · Journal of Hydrology
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128667
  2. Evaluation of short-term probabilistic eruption forecasting at Whakaari, New Zealand
    Dempsey DE, Kempa-Liehr AW, Ardid A et al. · Bulletin of Volcanology
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1007/s00445-022-01600-5
  3. Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes
    Ardid A, Dempsey D, Caudron C et al. · Nature Communications
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y
  4. Techno-Economic feasibility of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) with partially bridging Multi-Stage fractures for district heating applications
    Yu P, Dempsey D, Archer R · Energy Conversion and Management
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2022.115405

2021

  1. Hydrothermal Cooling as a Requirement for Short Storage of Silicic Magmas
    Kelly LJ, Gualda GAR, Gravley DM et al. · Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2021gc009794
  2. A three-dimensional coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical numerical model with partially bridging multi-stage contact fractures in horizontal-well enhanced geothermal system
    Yu P, Dempsey D, Archer R · International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijrmms.2021.104787
  3. Heat Transfer Through the Wairakei‐Tauhara Geothermal System Quantified by Multi‐Channel Data Modeling
    Ardid A, Archer R, Bertrand E et al. · Geophysical Research Letters
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2020gl092056
  4. Bayesian magnetotelluric inversion using methylene blue structural priors for imaging shallow conductors in geothermal fields
    Ardid A, Dempsey D, Bertrand E et al. · Geophysics
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1190/geo2020-0226.1
  5. Two-dimensional numerical modelling of strategies to avoid thermal stress induced flow channeling in fractured geothermal reservoirs
    Rongved M, Bauer A, Dempsey D et al. · Geothermics
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.geothermics.2020.101978

2020

  1. Ground motion simulation of hypothetical earthquakes in the upper North Island of New Zealand
    Dempsey D, Eccles JD, Huang J et al. · New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1080/00288306.2020.1842469
  2. Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand
    Dempsey DE, Cronin SJ, Mei S et al. · Nature Communications
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1038/s41467-020-17375-2

2019

  1. Response of Induced Seismicity to Injection Rate Reduction: Models of Delay, Decay, Quiescence, Recovery, and Oklahoma
    Dempsey D, Riffault J · Water Resources Research
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2018wr023587

2018

  1. Microseismicity Cloud Can Be Substantially Larger Than the Associated Stimulated Fracture Volume: The Case of the Paralana Enhanced Geothermal System
    Riffault J, Dempsey D, Karra S et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2017jb015299

2017

  1. Physics‐based forecasting of induced seismicity at Groningen gas field, the Netherlands
    Dempsey D, Suckale J · Geophysical Research Letters
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1002/2017gl073878

2016

  1. Collective properties of injection‐induced earthquake sequences: 2. Spatiotemporal evolution and magnitude frequency distributions
    Dempsey D, Suckale J, Huang Y · Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1002/2015jb012551
  2. Collective properties of injection‐induced earthquake sequences: 1. Model description and directivity bias
    Dempsey D, Suckale J · Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1002/2015jb012550

2015

  1. Simulation of the crystal growth of platelet sea ice with diffusive heat and mass transfer
    Wongpan P, Langhorne PJ, Dempsey DE et al. · Annals of Glaciology
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.3189/2015aog69a777
  2. Hydraulic fracturing fluid migration in the subsurface: A review and expanded modeling results
    Birdsell DT, Rajaram H, Dempsey D et al. · Water Resources Research
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1002/2015wr017810
  3. Numerical modeling of injection, stress and permeability enhancement during shear stimulation at the Desert Peak Enhanced Geothermal System
    Dempsey D, Kelkar S, Davatzes N et al. · International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijrmms.2015.06.003
  4. Reducing uncertainty associated with CO2 injection and brine production in heterogeneous formations
    Dempsey D, O’Malley D, Pawar R · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2015.03.004

2014

  1. Passive injection: A strategy for mitigating reservoir pressurization, induced seismicity and brine migration in geologic CO2 storage
    Dempsey D, Kelkar S, Pawar R · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2014.06.002
  2. Insights into interconnections between the shallow and deep systems from a natural CO2 reservoir near Springerville, Arizona
    Keating E, Newell D, Dempsey D et al. · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2014.03.009
  3. Modeling caprock bending stresses and their potential for induced seismicity during CO2 injection
    Dempsey D, Kelkar S, Pawar R et al. · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2014.01.005

2013

  1. Hydrological effects of dip‐slip fault rupture on a hydrothermal plume
    Dempsey DE, Archer RA, Ellis SM et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2012jb009395

2012

  1. Delineation of catchment zones of geothermal systems in large‐scale rifted settings
    Dempsey DE, Simmons SF, Archer RA et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2012jb009515
  2. Geometric properties of platelet ice crystals
    Dempsey DE, Langhorne PJ · Cold Regions Science and Technology
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2012.03.002
  3. The role of frictional plasticity in the evolution of normal fault systems
    Dempsey DE, Ellis SM, Rowland JV et al. · Journal of Structural Geology
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1016/j.jsg.2012.03.001
  4. Modeling the effects of silica deposition and fault rupture on natural geothermal systems
    Dempsey DE, Rowland JV, Zyvoloski GA et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2012jb009218
  5. Energetics of normal earthquakes on dip-slip faults
    Dempsey D, Ellis S, Archer R et al. · Geology
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1130/g32643.1

2011

  1. Evolution of supercooling under coastal Antarctic sea ice during winter
    Leonard GH, Langhorne PJ, Williams MJM et al. · Antarctic Science
    doi:10.1017/s0954102011000265

2010

  1. Observation and modeling of platelet ice fabric in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica
    Dempsey DE, Langhorne PJ, Robinson NJ et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
    Open PDFExplainer doi:10.1029/2008jc005264